Housing and Affordability Take Centre Stage in Ottawa’s 2026 Municipal Election
February 5, 2026
While nearly half of voters undecided for mayor and council, Sutcliffe starts 2026 with a lead
Ottawa, ON – With less than nine months until Ottawa voters head to the polls, a wide-open municipal election is taking shape, and housing affordability is emerging as one of the clearest issues likely to determine who wins and who loses.
To date, three candidates have officially declared their intention to run for mayor: Mark Sutcliffe, the incumbent; Jeff Leiper, a long-time Kitchissippi Ward councillor and chair of the city’s planning and housing committee; and Alex Lawson, a local home builder. Neil Saravanamuttoo, an economist with senior experience at Finance Canada and the G20 Global Infrastructure Hub, recently announced that he is considering entering the race.
New public opinion research from the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) was conducted in December 2025 by Abacus Data, prior to Lawson and Saravanamuttoo jumping into the race. It shows that 49% of Ottawa residents remain undecided about who they will support for mayor, while 47% are undecided at the city council level, underscoring how unpredictable the race is.
On the question of voting intention for mayor, 28% would cast their ballot for Mayor Mark Sutcliffe, 10% for Councillor Jeff Leiper, and 49% are undecided if the election were held today.
Similarly, 32% of residents would vote to re-elect their current city councillor, and 47% are undecided on how to vote if the election were held today.
At the same time, many residents are questioning whether the city is doing enough, quickly, setting the stage for housing, cost of living, and service delivery to become decisive election issues.
A city divided on direction, with voters still up for grabs
According to the survey, almost four in ten Ottawa residents (38%) believe the city is headed in the right direction, while a similar share believes the city is on the wrong track, and a significant portion remain unsure.
This uncertainty in the city’s direction mirrors the uncertainty in the political landscape, with roughly half of voters still weighing their choices for both mayor and council.
“With nearly half of voters undecided, the election in Ottawa is still taking shape,” said Tami Eades, president of the Ottawa Real Estate Board. “Voters are forming their opinions, so there is a real opportunity for candidates in these early stages to focus on policy and what solutions they’ll bring to council if elected. One thing is clear: the data shows that housing affordability and cost of living are front of mind as voters assess who they trust to lead the city.”
Cost of living and housing dominate voter priorities
Housing affordability and cost of living stand out as the most important issues shaping how residents will vote.
More than one in three residents (37%) identify cost of living as the most important issue facing Ottawa today, followed by housing affordability (19%), transit reliability (11%), and homelessness and encampments (10%). When asked what candidates should be focused on heading into the 2026 election, nearly two-thirds (63%) say cost of living should be a priority, while more than half (53%) point to housing affordability.
Housing and related costs are set to play a decisive role at the ballot box. Eighty-two per cent of residents say housing-related issues will be important in determining who they support in the 2026 municipal election, underscoring the central role housing policy will play in shaping the next council’s agenda.
“A home is the biggest cost in most family budgets,” said Eades. “With so many voters undecided, candidates have a real opportunity to connect with voters on issues like housing and get them interested in their campaigns.”
Residents want action and results on housing
The research shows that Ottawa residents are concerned about the state of housing. Nearly four in five residents (79%) say housing is unaffordable, while only five per cent believe it is affordable today. Over the past year, 52% say affordability for homebuyers has worsened, and 57% say affordability for renters has declined, despite market statistics showing some easing, highlighting sustained pressure across both ownership and rental markets.
Housing affordability is also reshaping long-term decisions for many households. Among homeowners, nearly one in four (24%) say they plan to give or pass their home on to their children or family members rather than sell it on the open market, a signal of growing concern that homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach for the next generation.
“For many families, housing affordability has become a generational issue,” said Nicole Christy, CEO of OREB. “Parents are giving up financial flexibility to afford their kids a chance at homeownership and the many benefits it brings. Voters want solutions to this and more.”
Housing policy as a test of leadership
Beyond housing, the survey highlights broader issues shaping voter attitudes ahead of October 26, 2026. Seventy-six per cent of Ottawa residents say they are concerned about the future of downtown, including vacancies, safety, and economic activity. Confidence in major city projects and municipal finances is mixed, and 40% of residents say they would prefer to keep taxes as low as possible, even if services do not improve.
“With so many voters still undecided, housing affordability isn’t just another policy issue, it’s a litmus test,” said Christy. “Candidates who can bring innovative solutions or show real progress on housing will be best positioned to earn trust in 2026.”
About the survey
The Ottawa Real Estate Board–Abacus Data State of Housing Survey was conducted from December 10 to 22, 2025, among 1,000 residents of the City of Ottawa. Results are accurate within ±2.77 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB)
The Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB) is a non-profit association representing more than 4,000 member REALTORS® in the Ottawa region. OREB advocates for policies that promote housing affordability, protect consumers, and support a fair and efficient real estate commercial and residential marketplace.
Media contact
Melanie Coulson
Director of Strategic Communications & Engagement
613-222-7129 | melanie@oreb.ca
