Author: OREB Admin

The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 629 units in January 2024. This was an increase of 16.5% from January 2023.

Home sales were 10.7% below the five-year average and 3.9% below the 10-year average for the month of January.

“Ottawa’s market activity is seeing positive gains over last year but it’s still a relatively quiet market even by pre-pandemic standards,” says OREB President Curtis Fillier. “While REALTORS® are telling us there’s lots of showing activity — probably thanks in part to the forgiving winter thus far — it’s not all translating to sales. This tells us that buyers are back out there looking, but still approaching cautiously. During the pandemic market, buyers had to move quickly and sometimes settle for a property that didn’t check all their boxes. Today, buyers are using the slower market to take the time needed to find their perfect place. Sellers would be well-advised to adjust their expectations and thoughtfully consider their pricing and timing strategy using the negotiating expertise and hyper-local data their REALTOR® can provide.”

“Ottawa’s market conditions can fluctuate quickly, though, because our supply is chronically low,” adds Brandon Reay, OREB’s policy and external relations manager. “Ottawa needs more suitable and affordable homes to address the housing crisis, and we need to increase density to meet population demands. We can’t restore and grow upon the market activity Ottawa saw five and ten years ago without more houses for people to buy. OREB recommends direct solutions for meaningful policy change, including streamlining the process at the Ontario Land Tribunal, eliminating exclusionary zoning, and permitting four units on residential lots. To meet the aggressive housing targets, we need to close the labour gap with investments in colleges and trade schools. We don’t need any more reactionary and distracting policy, like the federal government’s extension of the foreign buyers ban.”

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

• The overall MLS® HPI composite benchmark price was $621,600 in January 2024, a gain of 3.2% from January 2023.
  • The benchmark price for single-family homes was $703,500, up 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in January.
  • By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse/row unit was $462,200, down 2.1% compared to a year earlier.
  • The benchmark apartment price was $418,500, up 3.7% from year-ago levels.
• The average price of homes sold in January 2024 was $631,722, increasing 1.8% from January 2023.
• The dollar volume of all home sales in January 2024 was $397.3 million, up 18.6% from the same month in 2023.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• The number of new listings saw an increase of 7.3% from January 2023. There were 1,271 new residential listings in January 2024. New listings were 17.5% above the five-year average and 0.8% above the 10-year average for the month of January.
• Active residential listings numbered 1,961 units on the market at the end of January 2024, a gain of 4.5% from the end of January 2023.
• Active listings were 57.4% above the five-year average and 16.6% below the 10-year average for the month of January. Months of inventory numbered 3.1 at the end of January 2024, down from the 3.5 months recorded at the end of January 2023. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

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The number of homes sold through the MLS® System of the Ottawa Real Estate Board totaled 724 units in November 2023. This was a small reduction of 1.6% from November 2022.

Home sales were 31.8% below the five-year average and 27.4% below the 10-year average for the month of November.

On a year-to-date basis, home sales totaled 11,421 units after 11 months of the year. This was a decline of 11.7% from the same period in 2022.

“Sales are performing as expected with the arrival of colder months, and an uptick in new and active listings is bringing more choice back into the market,” says OREB President Ken Dekker. “While more choice may mean the pace of buying and selling has slowed, that doesn’t mean people looking to enter or upgrade in the market should sit back. Prospective buyers or those looking to upgrade have an opportunity to collaborate with their REALTOR® to carefully explore the market, identify the ideal property, and negotiate an attractive deal at their own pace. Sellers will have to manage their expectations regarding the quantity of offers and speed of transactions, and their REALTOR® is the best resource to help them confidently price and prepare their home for a quality sale.”

By the Numbers – Prices:

The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) tracks price trends far more accurately than is possible using average or median price measures.

• The overall MLS^® HPI composite benchmark price was $628,900 in November 2023, nearly unchanged, up only 1.4% from November 2022.
  • The benchmark price for single-family homes was $708,900, up 1.6% on a year-over-year.
  • By comparison, the benchmark price for a townhouse was $492,300, nearly unchanged, up 0.8% compared to a year earlier.
  • The benchmark apartment price was $424,300, up 1.2% from year-ago levels.
• The average price of homes sold in November 2023 was $633,138, decreasing 0.8% from November 2022. The more comprehensive year-to-date average price was $669,536, a decline of 5.7% from 11 months of 2022.
• The dollar value of all home sales in November 2023 was $458.4 million, down 2.4% from the same month in 2022.

OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

By the Numbers – Inventory & New Listings

• The number of new listings saw an increase of 2.7% from November 2022. There were 1,428 new residential listings in November 2023. New listings were 8.4% above the five-year average and 10.4% above the 10-year average for the month of November.
• Active residential listings numbered 2,752 units on the market at the end of November, a sizable gain of 15.8% from the end of November 2022.
• Active listings were 53.9% above the five-year average and 6.7% below the 10-year average for the month of November. Active listings haven’t been this high in the month of November in more than five years.
• Months of inventory numbered 3.8 at the end of November 2023, up from the 3.2 months recorded at the end of November 2022 and above the long-run average of 3.3 months for this time of year. The number of months of inventory is the number of months it would take to sell current inventories at the current rate of sales activity.

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Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,110 residential properties in July through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 1,718 in July 2021, a decrease of 35 per cent. July’s sales included 840 in the residential-property class, down 36 per cent from a year ago, and 270 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 34 per cent from July 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in July is 1,691.

“We are witnessing a profound slowdown in Ottawa’s resale market. July’s numbers reveal that Buyers are indeed putting on the brakes more heavily than what is typically expected during the mid-summer sales dip. Aggressive interest rate increases are surely impacting the decision to buy at the moment as well as other factors that I mentioned last month,” states OREB President Penny Torontow. “But there is a silver lining: with more properties continually being added to inventory, we are on the cusp of returning to a balanced market, and that is good news,” she adds.

“July saw 2,338 new listings added to the housing stock, which is on par with the 5-yr average and 5% lower than last year at this time. Our inventory for residential-class properties is currently around 2.9 months and 2.5 months for condominiums. A market is considered balanced with at least four months of supply, so we are well on our way to that paradigm.”

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in July was $425,694, an increase of 1 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $716,354, increasing 5 per cent from a year ago. With year-to-date average sale prices at $805,238 for residential and $461,557 for condominiums, these values represent an 11 per cent and 9 percent increase over 2021, respectively.*

“The double-digit average price increases that we saw in the past couple of years right up until the early spring have now morphed into single-digit increases, which aligns more with our traditional stable year-over-year price growth. However, it is important to point out that average prices tally the entire spectrum of home sales across the city and region. If you look from neighbourhood to neighbourhood, there are so many differing characteristics and attributes, price increases will certainly fluctuate depending on where you live,” suggests Torontow.

“If you are selling your home, now is the time to be patient as days on market return to more normal timeframes. There are still many Buyers out there, but with more choice, they have less pressure and may take their time. Even though interest rates are still quite reasonable from a historical perspective, consumers are adjusting to this new reality. The rising cost of all goods means people need time to evaluate and adapt their mindsets.”

“I also believe it is time for the federal government to adapt and reassess the stress test. It was originally designed when rates were very low to ensure Buyers could manage rate hikes. With interest rates where they are now, they have to qualify at a 7-8% rate which no longer makes sense and takes many Buyers out of the market.”

“Whether you are a Buyer or a Seller, a professional licensed REALTOR® will help you navigate this shifting resale market. They have access to minute-by-minute sales data and local neighbourhood expertise that will assist you in making the best decisions for your circumstances.”

REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members have assisted clients with renting 3,528 properties compared to 2,706 last year at this time.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

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Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,508 residential properties in June through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 2,122 in June 2021, a decrease of 29 per cent. June’s sales included 1,138 in the residential-property class, down 31 per cent from a year ago, and 370 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 23 per cent from June 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in June is 1,966.

“After the frenzy of the past two years, we are witnessing Ottawa’s resale market normalize in 2022 and shift towards the more traditional seasonal ebb and flow cycle. While June transactions do typically taper as many look towards their summer holidays, last month’s sales were at a slower pace than we have seen in well over a decade,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Penny Torontow.

“We can likely attribute the decrease in unit sales to economic factors such as rising interest rates and cost of living/inflation. Other dynamics could include Buyer fatigue combined with a wait-and-see approach towards home prices, lack of confidence amongst consumers, and perhaps the uncertainty surrounding back-to-work arrangements as a long commute with rocketing gas prices will certainly affect decisions about where to live,” she adds. 

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in June was $438,977, an increase of 1 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $772,861, increasing 6 per cent from a year ago. With year-to-date average sale prices at $815,797 for residential and $465,573 for condominiums, these values represent an 11 per cent and 10 percent increase over 2021, respectively.*

“It’s no secret that price increases have become more modest in the last two months–there’s a new benchmark reality in Ottawa. While our average price statistics provide an overall picture, as the market settles, there will be adjustment differences in various pockets of the city. For example, what happens in Westboro will not likely mirror Findlay Creek,” advises Torontow.

“But even as prices fluctuate, historically, real estate in Ottawa has always been and will continue to be stable and dependable in the long term. We aren’t likely to ever experience the significant dips that other regions may see. Prices won’t fall out; they are prone to level off to the reasonable rates of increase that we have historically experienced.”

“With an influx of 3,213 new listings in June, we are moving (albeit gradually) towards the goal of a more balanced market. Residential inventory has increased by 38% over last year at this time and is sitting at an approximate 1.9 months’ supply currently. Condominium housing stock has risen 14% to a 1.6 months’ supply for that property class. Once government-pledged supply measures are enacted, we are optimistic that goal is within reach.”

“Buyers, if you have been waiting on the sidelines, this may be an optimal time to venture back into your home search. There is more selection, fewer bidding wars, and less pressure to make a warp-speed decision. As for Sellers, your neighbourhood has its own characteristics and attributes that should weigh into the calculation of your property’s value. Contact a professional REALTOR® who has their hand on the pulse of Ottawa’s shifting real estate market today!”

REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 2,919 properties compared to 2,252 last year at this time.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

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Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,846 residential properties in May through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 2,285 in May 2021, a decrease of 19 per cent. May’s sales included 1,384 in the residential-property class, down 22 per cent from a year ago, and 462 in the condominium-property category, a decrease of 11 per cent from May 2021. The five-year average for total unit sales in May is 2,031.

“With year-over-year resales declining in March and April, and now with this downward trend continuing into May, traditionally the highest performing month for resales, it is quite clear that Ottawa’s resale market is shifting away from the blazing pace of 2021,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Penny Torontow. “And if rising interest rates, cost of living, and inflation aren’t enough factors to cause a pullback, the powerful and deadly storm that brought our city to its knees last month has justifiably impacted the market as well.”

“Our data shows a sharp decline in new listings with a corresponding increase in cancelled/suspended listings on the MLS® System in the period following the storm. Overall, in May, however, there were 3,120 properties that entered the market. This is on par with last May and is 5% over the 5-year average. The result is an 18% increase in residential-class inventory. Meanwhile, there was a slight decline (0.4%) in condominium inventory, but this is not surprising since they have likely become an entry point for many first-time homebuyers due to the affordable price point.”

The average sale price for a condominium-class property in May was $472,920, an increase of 11 per cent from 2021, while the average sale price for a residential-class property was $802,393, increasing 8 per cent from a year ago. With year-to-date average sale prices at $824,276 for residential and $470,353 for condominiums, these values represent a 12 per cent increase over 2021 for both property classes.*

“Average prices, while still higher than 2021, are showing signs of adjusting to the pace of the market with a month-over-month decrease of 2% in both property classes. In April, we also saw a decline of 1-3%. In contrast, January to March experienced month-to-month increases ranging from 2% to 12%. This may be good news for Buyers, including the fact that the months of inventory have increased to 1.2 for residential and 1 month for condominiums. We are still a far cry away from a balanced market, but it finally seems to be moving in the right direction,” Torontow suggests.

“Additionally, another statistic that we see increasing is the cumulative days on market (CDOM), which is now 14 days, increasing from 11 days last May. CDOMs are typically between 30-60 days in a balanced market, and usually closer to that one-month mark in Ottawa. I mention this because we don’t want Sellers to panic if their homes aren’t selling as quickly as perhaps their neighbours’ properties did. Buyers will also have a little more breathing room if this trend continues.”

“But at the end of the day, each property for sale has its own hyper-local market factors (location, condition, other properties for sale in the same neighbourhood, etc.) that will affect the final sale price. If you want to know the most accurate price point to sell your home or what is the true market value of a home you are interested in, a licensed professional REALTOR® has the education and the experience with access to the most current market statistics and property information, to guide you into making the optimal decision for you and your budget.”

REALTORS® also help with finding rentals and vetting potential tenants. Since the beginning of the year, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 2,320 properties compared to 1,837 last year at this time.

* OREB cautions that the average sale price can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The calculation of the average sale price is based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold. Price will vary from neighbourhood to neighbourhood.

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